NYC’s race to the moon, and what’s up there.

[Links to articles cited in this post are at bottom.]

Last December I wrote here about new residential buildings in Manhattan getting taller and taller.  Well, now they’re getting taller still.

The Real Deal reports that a permit has been issued for a 1300' residential tower to be built at 440 Park Avenue.  The Girasole Tower, a currently stalled project on 11th Avenue, could rise even higher if and when it's completed.

The sliver building I live in.

 

Today’s Times reports that by 2016, New York could have 6 of the 10 tallest buildings in the country (with Chicago having the other 4), and 3 of the highest residential structures.

The Times writer, Alexei Barrionuevo, asks, “What is it that drives some people to live so high up?  And developers to keep building ever-taller edifices?”

The second question is easy.  Developers will build anything there’s a market for. 

And location (as you may have heard) is an important factor in real estate value.  Manhattan is a highly desirable location, but there’s only so much of it.  If you can’t build sideways, you have to build up.

Regarding the first question:  We could ask the fabulously wealthy person who just bought the penthouse on the 89^th and 90^th floors of 157 West 57^th Street for more than $90 million what appealed to him about the space, but nobody knows who he is

However, I can speak with a little authority, as I live on the 36^th floor of my building, which was a high floor for a residential building in 1986, when my husband and I bought our small apartment.

December sunset from my window.

And I took my first job in Manhattan partly because the office was on the 42^nd floor of what was then the General Motors building, at 59^th and Fifth. 

Lately I’ve been above the 60^th floor in buildings in midtown, and, as there is such a cluster of tall buildings there, in some of them all you can see from those floors is other buildings. 

The advantage is strictly one of location, although the elevator ride down can seem almost as long as a cab ride from some lesser area.

But in my downtown neighborhood, the light and views are incredible, even from the lowly 36^th floor. 

On a clear day, I swear I can see Chicago. 

(There are those who have claimed to see the Space Needle from my western windows, but it’s just the Willis Tower.)

The apartment is actually too bright on late summer afternoons.  I have to wear a hat with a wide brim while working at my computer to keep the sun out of my eyes. 

But I love, love, love watching thunder and lightning and heavy rain roll in from New Jersey.  And on a cloudy day I know whether the sun will be coming out any time soon. 



Storm en route from New Jersey, camera flash.



There are some disadvantages.  I had to climb up and then down all 35 flights once when a pipe broke, and once in the dark during a blackout. 

(The neighbors on lower floors kindly put chairs out in the hall so residents of higher floors could rest for a bit during the climb.  One offered me water.)   

The building is a sliver, with less than 3,500 square feet on a floor, and it’s designed to sway just a little in a heavy wind. 

This drove my cat crazy, until he got used to it.  He would hide among the sweaters in the closet closest to the center of the floor.

And speaking of wind, yes, it does get windy on my balcony, which is on the south side of the building.  There’s no obstruction to the wind that blows in from the west.  This is especially noticeable around sunset. 

But later on, the wind dies down, and it’s lovely to sit on the balcony with a glass of wine and watch the moon rise and the stars come out.

Here are links to articles cited above:

(http://www.withconfidence.blogspot.com/2011/12/welcome-to-stratosphere-new-buildings.html).

http://therealdeal.com/blog/2012/05/18/dob-issues-permit-for-citys-tallest-residential-tower/

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/20/realestate/big-deal-new-yorks-race-to-the-top.html?_r=1&ref=realestate

(http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/18/realestate/midtown-penthouse-at-one57-sells-for-new-york-record.html?_r=1 )

How do you buy in a seller's market?

NY1.com has just published an article entitled, “Tips For Having The Upper Hand In A Competitive Market.”

While we’re not officially in a seller’s market yet, we’re headed in that direction.  There’s little inventory right now.  And the competition for good, properly priced properties is resulting in multiple offers and bidding wars.

The article offers some very good advice for buyers on how to operate in this kind of a market.  It also offers what I consider some extremely bad advice. 

As I tell my buyers, the first thing you should do, before you even start looking, is talk to a mortgage broker, or to your accountant.  The mortgage broker will tell you the maximum amount you can spend if you’re financing. 

Don’t go over it.

Find a reliable real estate broker to help you with the necessary homework to make sure you stay within your price range.  A broker can give you comparable sales and will tell you if what you're looking for is attainable within your budget. 

The right broker can save you a lot of time otherwise wasted on looking at the wrong properties.  A good broker will also be an expert negotiator.  His or her expertise will be invaluable in the negotiating process.

(For more on this subject, see http://www.withconfidence.blogspot.com/2011/05/why-buyers-need-brokers.html

Allow yourself plenty of time.  If you want to move within nine months to a year, the time to start looking is now.  That way, you’ll be well-educated about the market by the time you’re ready to move forward, and you’ll have plenty of time to find the right place. 

You don’t want to find yourself with an expiring lease and nowhere to go, and you don’t want to make offers before you really know what properties are worth.

The article makes one suggestion that I most emphatically do not agree with. 

“If you end up in a bidding or best and final offer scenario, [a broker] suggests upping your offer to the very top of your comfort zone or even a little bit above as it could be your only chance to get the home. And if you really want it, you have to go in big.”

Yes, it’s usually wise to bid aggressively.  If it’s a property you really want, chances are others will want it too, and will bid accordingly. 

But I would never, ever, ever,  EVER encourage you to go above what your mortgage broker or accountant has told you should be your comfort zone.  

For one thing, once the heat of the moment has passed, in the cold gray light of dawn you may well realize you’re spending more than you should and walk away, thus wasting everybody’s time and legal fees, including your own.

For another thing, when it comes time to finalize the financing, the bank may balk if the price is more than the you can really afford, or if the bank’s appraisal is less than the price you’ve agreed on. 

Don’t forget that it’s likely you’ll want to do some work before you move in.  Get an estimate from a contractor so you can add that to the price and know what the property will actually cost you.

A house or apartment is much too big an investment to rush into.  Do not let yourself be pressured.  Move with all deliberate speed, but not so fast that you're uncomfortable.  And don’t bid over your head. 

And if you lose the first property you want, think of it this way:  as I have told my clients on more than one occasion, there are seven billion people walking around on this planet not living in that property and not in the least distressed about it.  You may be one of them. 

It’s not the end of the world.  You'll find something else.  And maybe it will be even better.

Here’s the link:  http://brooklyn.ny1.com/content/ny1_living/real_estate/160725/tips-for-having-the-upper-hand-in-a-competitive-market

 

What to do if your property sale falls through.

Some good points in this article, I think, an interesting one being that you may even be able to get more money for it than you would have with the deal that died.  And, btw, I'm quoted.  (I love being quoted!)  Here's the link http://www.brickunderground.com/blog/2012/02/11_things_a_seller_can_do_when_a_sale_falls_through

Does Tim Tebow really need this kind of real estate supervision?

Oh, dear!

Jets officials say they want Tim Tebow to live in...wait for it...New Jersey!

They say they don't want him corrupted by the evils of New York. 

You know!  The Metropolitan Museum of Art (pictures of naked women!), St. Patrick's Cathedral, the Empire State Building, the Bronx Zoo, the Metropolitan Opera (who can tell what awful things they sing about?  It's all in a foreign language!), and heaven knows what else. 

Think of what effect Broadway shows like "Death of a Salesman," "A Streetcar Named Desire," and "Porgy and Bess" could have on this innocent young man.  Not to mention "Jesus Christ Superstar," "Godspell" and "Leap of Faith."

This highly religious athlete is obviously susceptible to all these sinful attractions.  Who knows?  He might slip and fall at the Museum of Modern Art while looking at some subversive Picasso and hurt his throwing arm.  Or be hit by a bus with an ad for "The Book of Mormon" on it.

It's certainly true that the press is waiting for any sign of moral turpitude in Tebow.  A single overdue library book could put him on every front page in the country.

So the powers that rule the Jets want to keep him in that bastion of moral righteousness, New Jersey, where he can enjoy the innocent and bucolic charms of the Jersey Shore, and where, as the article says, "Between the Jets' bickering locker room, loudmouth coach Rex Ryan and unforgiving fans, Tebow will have to step up his prayer game."

Here's the link:  http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/Tim-Tebow-New-York-Jets-New-York-nightlife-New-Jersey-032112

Is it a seller’s market or a buyer’s market? Or somewhere in between?

The answer lies in the absorption rate.

Absorption refers to the number of properties sold relative to the number available.  First, average the number of properties sold per month for the last twelve months (some reports only average for six, but twelve will account for seasonality). 

Then divide the number of properties available by that average number.  This, in theory, gives you the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory.  That’s the absorption rate.

Less than six months of inventory is considered a seller’s market.  Six to nine months is a balanced market, and more than nine months is a buyer’s market.

 

Although absorption has slowed a bit since a year ago, inventory is still relatively low. 

Miller Samuel, the appraisal firm, reports that for the month of February, Manhattan  inventory levels for properties priced below $2,000,000 are in the balanced range.  Levels in the $2,000,000--$3,000,000 range are just barely into buyer's market territory. 

However, remember that the number of "available" properties includes those with a brick wall view, a five flight climb, or a price that’s 20% over market.  Tough sales all, especially that last.   So the inventory of properly priced, desirable apartments is significantly smaller. 

Looking for a prewar two bedroom with a doorman anywhere in the Village for under $3,000,000 with a maintenance under $3,000?  There’s exactly one.   If your budget will stretch to $3,750,000, and/or you don’t mind paying much higher monthlies, you have a choice of four.

Property on the west side is also in short supply, at least for co-ops.  You’ll have a better shot at finding a condo than a co-op in six of the eight price brackets, but even the supply of condos is balanced in five of those brackets. 

On the east side, it’s still a buyer’s market, at least for co-ops.  Miller Samuel reports that there’s at least a slight surplus of co-ops at every level, ranging from 10.5 months in the $2,000,000 bracket to 35months in the $10,000,000 and up bracket.   But condo inventories there remain for the most part at a balanced level.

The experts say that prices will remain flat for the next year or so.  However, in those areas where there’s a really short supply of inventory, I think prices simply have to rise.

Here’s the link:   http://matrix.millersamuel.com/?p=13186

Other stuff: when I sang with Whitney Houston.

Many years ago, I studied voice with a woman who had a friend who was putting together a gospel chorus for a performance at St. Peter’s Church.  (That’s the one that Citicorp wraps around.) 

It was a one-shot deal, but it sounded like fun.

We were asked to wear something long and white and the rehearsal was just a few hours before the performance, so we were to come to it in our performance clothes. 

Pants were okay, so I found a white turtleneck and white pants with only a faint beige check, and went off to St. Peter’s. 

There were about  fifty or sixty of us, all strangers to me except for my teacher who sang in a different section. 

One beautiful, tall and very slender young African-American woman stood out.  Unlike most of us, she was actually wearing a long white robe. 

People said she was the daughter of a well-known gospel singer (whom I had never heard of, not being into gospel), and a really good singer in her own right. 

I had the impression her mother had been invited but couldn’t be there so sent her daughter. 

The others said this girl, Whitney, was extremely religious and believed that drinking and smoking were wrong and against God’s will. 

There was some discussion about  a gig she had performing in a small club in the village.  Obviously there was drinking and smoking going on there, but Whitney wasn’t doing any of it.  However, in spite of her religious views, she was comfortable performing for those who did.

Our gospel performance was okay and uneventful.  My husband came to it and I loved the fact that he had to pay $5 to hear me sing even though he couldn’t actually hear me.

Brian and I always enjoyed seeing people perform with whom we had even the vaguest connection, so a few nights later we went down to the village to a tiny little bar with perhaps 30 seats to hear this girl sing.

She tore the roof off the place.  A great voice, a huge presence and incredibly dynamic, even at that early age.  .

At the time she still had a boyish figure, and at one point her sparkly tube top slipped, showing us a little more of Whitney than she probably wanted us to see, but she pulled it back up again with great aplomb. 

It was clear she owned the audience and knew it.

She was standing by the door as we left and I told her how fantastic her performance had been and that I was exhausted by it, meaning that she used so much energy I was tired just from watching her. 

But I guess that was the wrong thing, because her smile went away.  I said thanks again, and we left.

I was never in the least surprised that she became a superstar.  But I was very saddened to see the stories in the tabloids about her problems with drugs and alcohol. 

She traveled a long way from St. Peter’s, and from that little club. 

May she rest in peace. 

What does it cost to live in Park Slope and what do you get for the money?

If you’re buying a house or an apartment, there are many reasons to buy in Park Slope.  But you’d better hurry.  They’re going fast.

Here’s the link to an article on Brownstoner.com that takes the temperature of the current market there.  It’s hot: http://www.brownstoner.com/blog/2012/01/brisk-business-for-several-million-dollar-slope-homes/?accordion=blog-stream

To add to what the article says, at present, out of 50 houses listed for sale, 21 are in contract.   Of 254 condos and co-ops currently listed, 79 are in contract. 

One very big reason for choosing Park Slope is the huge difference in prices for properties there and in Manhattan. 

The average price per square foot for a house in Park Slope is around $600.  And you can fall in love with something quite large and lovely, near the park, for somewhere in the mid-$3,000,000s.  Depending on your needs, you might even find something that makes you happy for less than $2,000,000.

That’s millions less than on the upper west side, where the average price for the 32 houses currently available is more than $7,500,000

For a 1 to 3 unit townhouse on the upper west side, in the last six months you’d have paid anywhere from $4,000,000 to more than $22,000,000, with the average price per square foot about $1,700.

There’s a huge difference in the prices of apartments, too.  For a two bedroom, two bath condo of at least 1250 square feet in Park Slope, you’ll pay an average of $1,050,000, or a little more than $600 per square foot.  On the upper west side, a similar condo would be well over double at about $2,500,000.

But it’s not just about price.  It’s also about a gorgeous park, block after block of beautiful brownstones, charming restaurants, the Botanic Gardens, BAM, and lots of other wonderful things Brooklyn has to offer. 

Here are links to previous posts on Park Slope houses:

http://www.withconfidence.blogspot.com/2011/12/and-now-for-something-completely.html

http://www.withconfidence.blogspot.com/2012/01/more-about-park-slope-architect-c-p-h.html