Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Manhattan is no longer a buyer's market. No kidding, really.

The current Vanderbilt Absorption report says that for properties priced under $3,000,000, the Manhattan residential real estate market is balanced.  It's not yet a sellers' market, but it's not a buyers' market either.

The way the report works is this:  the Vanderbilt Appraisal Company divides the number of available properties (they include those under contract) by the average number of sales for each of the last six months.  The result is the number of months it should take to sell what's currently on the market.

Less than six months of inventory means a sellers' market.  Six to nine months is a market in equilibrium, that is, it favors neither sellers nor buyers.  More than nine months means it's a buyers' market.

Historically, the Manhattan norm is about nine months of inventory.

Overall, in Manhattan, there are 9.8 months.  But if you exclude properties priced at more than $2,000,000, that figure ranges from 8.2 to 8.9--comfortably into balanced territory.

For sellers, the upper west side and downtown are tied for rosiest picture, with 8.1 months of inventory each.   In the $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 segment of the market there are only 6 months on the upper west and 6.5 months downtown--just barely in balance, tending to favor sellers. 

Midtown and the upper east side are still a good bet for buyers with an overall 13.2 months of inventory each, as is upper Manhattan with 13.5 months.  

Here's the link:!__june-2011

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